Vice-Presidential Debate Thursday Night

I forgot to mention in class that you should watch the vice-presidential debate between Gov. Sarah Palin and Sen. Joe Biden. The debate begins at 9:00 tonight and will end around 10:30, but feel free to watch it anytime before class on Monday. (You can view it at your leisure on iTunes, CNN.com, or  youdecide2008.com/video, among other places.) 

Before you watch the debate, I encourage you to read the following essays about Gov. Palin and Sen. Biden.

http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/1001/p09s01-coop.html

http://warner.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/09/25/poor-sarah/?em

http://www.salon.com/mwt/feature/2008/09/30/palin_pity/

I suspect Gov. Palin will do very well tonight. "Doing well" doesn't mean that she will answer every question, or display a grasp of legal and political intricacies. Instead, "doing well" means she will revert to the persona that electrified the nation when she was selected, and then nominated, for the vice presidency. As I said in class, these debates are all about image; the candidates go in with a list of things they want to get across regardless of the questions they are asked, and a specific image they want to project to voters. Gov. Palin is very competitive by nature, having led her high school basketball team to a state championship, entered beauty contests, and hunted for sport and food, and I suspect she will be eager to redeem herself after last week's interview with Katie Couric. She needs to restore voters' (and pundits') confidence in her abilities. It will surprise me if she isn't confident, assertive, blunt, charming, and humorous.  Part of her plan will probably involve goading Sen. Biden into a damaging gaffe, which he commits regularly but has yet to do so on such a large stage.

That said, Gov. Palin's success tonight depends in part on Gwen Ifill's assertiveness as a moderator. (Ifill herself has become part of the debate news as more people are finding out that she is writing a book with Obama's name in the title, which some view as a sign that her neutrality is compromised.) I'm not sure if Ifill will ask follow-up questions to make sure the candidates stay on topic, or if she will simply move from question to question to make sure she covers a wide range of issues. Also, the format seems to suggest it will restrict the candidates from speaking directly to each other. The more specifically Palin is required to speak, the tougher it will be for her to project the sunnily confident aura that she radiated for much of September.  Sen. Biden's challenge is to stick to the issues and his talking points; any hint of aggression or condescension will damage his performance.

The McCain-Palin ticket trails Obama-Biden in the polls by anywhere from 3 to 9 points. Whenever they have trailed by this much in the past, McCain-Palin has tried a dramatic "game changer" (it's the political cliché of the moment) and attacked its opponent. (For its part, Obama-Biden "goes negative"--i.e., attacks--both when it is in the lead and when it is behind.) His first game changer, selecting Gov. Palin as his running mate, was a fantastic success. His second game changer, declaring he would suspend campaign operations until Congress had a plan to address the nation's economic crisis, yielded mixed results, and it did not improve his standing in the polls. I wouldn't be surprised if Gov. Palin attempted a game changer tonight, either by directly challenging the legitimacy of Gwen Ifill as a moderator, or by casting bait to Sen. Biden to throw him off an even keel. 

Pay attention to those rhetorical fallacies!